Ayatollah Ali Khamenei served because the Supreme Chief of Iran for almost 36 years and 6 months earlier than being killed in a joint strike by america and Israel over the previous weekend. Days later, the slain chief’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has reportedly been chosen as the brand new Supreme Chief. What stands out on this determination is that whereas Iran’s Meeting of Specialists elected Mojtaba, the precise selection was made by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei (R) is the eldest son of slain Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (Reuters/X/@sentdefender)
Mojtaba’s election as the brand new Supreme Chief of the Islamic Republic was first reported by Iran Worldwide. The choice has not but been made public and is anticipated to be introduced after Ayatollah Khamenei’s funeral. Comply with US-Iran warfare information reside updates
Mojtaba Khamenei taking cost of the highest chair is nowhere close to a traditional succession. It’s a ‘wartime succession’. Amid an assault from the US and Israel and a management vacuum, Iran swiftly moved to choose a frontrunner for the highest submit to regain pace and management.
Why did IRGC select Mojtaba?
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly had two essential elements influencing their determination — management and legitimacy.
Conserving the chain of command safe, stopping any tussle on the prime, holding safety forces intact and stopping chaos over energy have been key to regulate. And to attain this, the IRGC wanted inside stability, Iran Worldwide reported.
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As for legitimacy, the issue is regime-centred, not a matter of concern in a nationwide sense. The IRGC aimed to maintain legitimacy intact throughout the Iranian regime’s core — hardliner politicians, safety businesses, and the loyal networks that also take into account the Islamic Republic “their” state.
And relating to legitimacy, Mojtaba has one particular element that others don’t — a direct relationship, continuity with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Because of this he’s acceptable to the regime’s core base with out having to hold the sensation of the system being damaged.
These two causes are why the IRGC selected Mojtaba Khamenei.
Moreover, Mojtaba has had long-lived ties with the IRGC, relationship again many years, and deep relationships throughout its command networks, the report said. He served as an necessary channel between his father, the Supreme Chief, and the IRGC’s management, putting him in a uncommon place.
Mojtaba is near the safety core of the Guard Corps and, on the identical time, related to civilian and clerical management.
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Not solely is he perceived because the closest confidant of Ayatollah Khamenei, however Mojtaba has additionally successfully run the Supreme Chief’s Workplace, the Beit Rahbari, for the higher a part of the previous 20 years.
The Beit is the core of the state, with actual authority residing inside it, controlling key safety, political and monetary departments. That is the explanation why an outsider taking management will not be a really perfect selection for the Islamic Republic.
Preserve preventing or step again: Two paths for Iran
With the present turmoil within the Center East, Iran can both keep defiant and preserve preventing, or it may possibly step again and settle for the concessions to cease the warfare. And Mojtaba can deal with both path.
If Iran decides to maintain preventing, it will imply stricter inside controls, deployment of forces, and a a lot greater reliance on uneven strain. As for the opposite possibility, Iran must surrender key pillars of its regional and navy posture with a purpose to get the assaults to cease.
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The political operate of this wartime succession is reportedly to make sure that the chief owns no matter deal is chosen, prevents the hardcore from flipping on their management, retains the IRGC united and retains the safety state functioning even underneath constant assault.
As soon as Mojtaba Khamenei takes cost, all the main focus — domestically and globally — would shift to his determination between intensification and de-escalation.
Revenge or peace?
The last word determination on this ongoing battle lies with the subsequent Supreme Chief, Mojtaba Khamenei. However the selection is far more durable. He not solely has the considered the Islamic Republic and its folks in his thoughts, but in addition the truth that US President Donald Trump has the blood of Qasem Soleimani and now Ayatollah Khamenei on his palms. This makes it more durable for Mojtaba to decide on between compromise and sustained preventing.
Nevertheless, Mojtaba appeared to hold a bonus even on this. Based on Iran Worldwide, he may current the choice of constant the combat as a matter of responsibility and retaliation. And in case of a transfer to pause the combat, he can current it as a call made by the inheritor and the household, not as an externally pressured selection.
Both means, Mojtaba Khamenei would start his reign within the ruins of his father’s world. The financial misery, falling establishments, US-Israeli assaults, and public hostility all come collectively to make Iran’s survival a guarantee-less phenomenon.
Who’s Mojtaba Khamenei?
Born in 1969 within the Iranian metropolis of Mashhad, Mojtaba Khamenei is the eldest son of the slain Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He grew up at a time when his father was concerned in main opposition to the Shah.
Whereas he has run the Beit for the previous 20 years, the 56-year-old Mojtaba has by no means formally held workplace or an official place within the Iranian regime.
He’s believed to wield vital ‘behind-the-scenes’ type of affect.
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Mojtaba fought within the Iranian armed forces through the warfare with Iraq. And within the latest US-Israeli strikes, he was among the many few Khamenei relations who survived.
Mojtaba was sanctioned by the US Treasury Division in 2019, which mentioned that he acted on behalf of the previous supreme chief in “an official capability, regardless of by no means being elected or appointed to a authorities place” aside from working in his father’s workplace.
